How to preserve narrow endemics in view of climate change? The Nuratau Mountains as the case
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.54981/PDCA/vol2_iss2/a3Ключевые слова:
narrow endemics, climate change, species distribution modeling, Nuratau, protected areas, Central AsiaАннотация
Endemic species usually have higher risk of extinction than widespread species and therefore for endemics negative effects of climate change can be especially dramatic. The Nuratau Mountains, located in Uzbekistan, are rich in endemic species and are a part of the Mountains of Central Asia Global Biodiversity Hotspot and one of Key Biodiversity Areas. To understand the consequences of climate change for a group of endemic plant species found in this region, we conducted species distribution modelling (SDM) and produced species maps of habitat suitability, as well as maps of predicted endemic species richness under current and expected future climatic conditions. Based the obtained information, we assessed: i) how well the existing protected area in the region (Nuratau Nature Reserve) protects the local endemics and ii) what needs to be done to preserve these species in the face of expected future warming. Among the 27 species studied, 14 appear to be the true narrow endemics as their predicted range is largely or entirely limited to the Nuratau Mountains. The remaining species have a wide predicted range, of which the Nuratau Mountains are only a small part. Only seven species will have suitable habitat within the Nuratau Mountains and only five of them will have suitable habitat in the protected territory of the Nuratau Nature Reserve. For six species, there will be no suitable area throughout the study area. Surprisingly, 13 species will have a suitable habitat in the Kugitang Range, where the Surkhan Nature Reserve is located. We propose as the most appropriate climate change adaptation strategy for these Nuratau endemics to artificially increase their dispersal capacity via in situ
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Plumbaginaceae pulvinate subshrub, chamaephyte dry stony, shistaceous, fine-earth-shistaceous slopes, plateaus and watersheds, communities of mountain xerophytes and mountain steppes, rarely open xerophilous shrublands Acantolimon zakirovii Beshko Plumbaginaceae pulvinate subshrub, chamaephyte dry stony, shistaceous, fine-earth-shistaceous slopes, plateaus and watersheds, communities of mountain xerophytes and mountain steppes, rarely open xerophilous shrublands Allium aktauense F.O. Khass. & Esankulov Amaryllidaceae bulbous perennial, stony and shistaceous slopes and watersheds geophyte Allium habibii F.O. Khass. Amaryllidaceae bulbous perennial, shady places under rocks geophyte Allium svetlanae Vved. ex Filim. Amaryllidaceae bulbous perennial, swamp alluvial meadows, wet granite rocks geophyte Arctium pallidivirens (Kult.) S. Lopez, Romanschenko, Susanna & N. Garcia Asteraceae perennial, hemicryptophyte dry stony, shistaceous, fine-earth slopes, open xerophilous shrublands, mountain steppes Astragalus nuratensis Popov Fabaceae perennial, hemicryptophyte stony slopes, rocks, dry riverbeds Volis and Beshko Astragalus saidii F.O.Khass. Fabaceae & Esankulov Autumnalia innopinata Apiaceae Pimenov Cousinia botschantzevii Juz. ex Tscherneva Cousinia pseudolanata Popov ex Tscherneva Dianthus helenae Vved. Asteraceae Dracocephalum nuratavicum Adylov Lamiaceae Eremurus nuratavicus Khohkr. Ferula helenae Rakhmankulov & Melibaev Asphodelaceae Ferula nuratavica Pimenov Apiaceae Helichrysum nuratavicum Krasch. Asteraceae Iris hippolyti (Vved.) Kamelin Iridaceae Jurinea zakirovii Iljin Asteraceae Lagochilus olgae Kamelin Lamiaceae Lagochilus proskorjakovii Ikramov Lamiaceae 82–101 Asteraceae Caryophyllaceae Apiaceae perennial, hemicryptophyte perennial, monocarpic, hemicryptophyte biennial, therophyte perennial, hemicryptophyte perennial, hemicryptophyte subshrub, chamaephyte stony slopes, rocks perennial, geophyte perennial, monocarpic, hemicryptophyte perennial, polycarpic, hemicryptophyte perennial, hemicryptophyte stony and fine-earth slopes, mountain steppes bulbotuberous perennial, geophyte perennial, hemicryptophyte subshrub, chamaephyte subshrub, chamaephyte dry stony and shistaceous slopes, open xerophilous shrublands, low mountain semidesert stony, shistaceous, fine-earth slopes, open xerophilous shrublands, mountain steppes dry stony and shistaceous slopes, screes, open xerophilous shrublands, petrophytes stony, shistaceous, fine-earth slopes, open xerophilous shrublands, mountain steppes dry stony, shistaceous slopes and watersheds, rocks, communities of petrophytes, mountain xerophytes and mountain steppes stony, shistaceous and fine-earth slopes, open xerophilous shrublands, low mountain semidesert stony slopes, rocks stony, shistaceous, fine-earth slopes, rocks, open xerophilous shrublands, mountain steppes stony, shistaceous, fine-earth slopes, open xerophilous shrublands, low mountain semidesert stony, shistaceous, fine-earth slopes, open xerophilous shrublands, mountain steppes stony, shistaceous slopes, open xerophilous shrublands, mountain steppes dry stony, shistaceous slopes and watersheds, rocks, screes, communities of petrophytes, mountain xerophytes and mountain steppes 650-800 500-800 400-800 Volis and Beshko Lappula nuratavica Nabiev & Zakirov Lepidium olgae (R.M.Vinogr.) Al-Shehbaz & Mumm. Oxytropis pseudorosea Filim. Boraginaceae Brassicaceae Fabaceae annual, biennial, therophyte perennial, hemicryptophyte stony slopes, rocks perennial, hemicryptophyte stony, shistaceous, fine-earth slopes, open xerophilous shrublands, mountain steppes, mountain xerophytes stony, shistaceous, fine-earth slopes, rocks, open xerophilous shrublands, mountain steppes, petrophytes stony, shistaceous, fine-earth slopes, open xerophilous shrublands, mountain steppes stony, shistaceous slopes, watersheds, rocks, mountain steppes, communities of mountain xerophytes and petrophytes stony, shistaceous slopes, watersheds, rocks, mountain steppes, communities of mountain xerophytes and petrophytes, rarely open xerophilous shrublands stony slopes, rocks Parrya nuratensis Botsch. & Brassicaceae Vved. subshrub, chamaephyte Phlomis nubilans Zakirov Lamiaceae Phlomoides anisochila (Pazij & Vved.) Salmaki Lamiaceae perennial, hemicryptophyte perennial, hemicryptophyte Salvia submutica Botsch. & Vved. Lamiaceae perennial, hemicryptophyte Silene nuratavica Kamelin Caryophyllaceae Thymus subnervosus Vved., Nabiev & Tulyag. Vicoa krascheninnikovii Kamelin Lamiaceae perennial, hemicryptophyte subshrub, chamaephyte perennial, hemicryptophyte Asteraceae stony, shistaceous slopes, open xerophilous shrublands stony and fine-earth slopes, rocks, mountain steppes, petrophytes stony slopes, rocks
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