Species Distribution Modeling - a conservation tool with a wide spectrum of applications in Central Asia

Authors

  • Sergei Volis Institute of Botany, Academy of Sciences, Tashkent 100125, Uzbekistan Author

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.54981/PDCA/vol1_iss2/a2

Keywords:

conservation planning, reserve design, reintroduction, restoration, threatened species

Abstract

The goal of this paper was to review and illustrate the utility of SDM for solving conservation problems. Using real-world examples, I show a variety of uses for SDM, and then review the existing and potential applications of SDM for plant conservation in Central Asia. Central Asia is the region with a high number of endemic species that have narrow habitat specialization and very restricted ranges. Many of these species are red-listed and known from only a few or a single location. Any plans for their recovery must be based on the estimates of their area of occupancy and critical habitat, as well as the knowledge of their habitat requirements and potential range. SDM can be used for obtaining this information. The predicted ranges then can be used for species translocations, identification of biodiversity and endemism hotspots and reserve design.

Share

Downloads

Download data is not yet available.

References

Araujo MB, Cabeza M, Thuiller W, Hannah L, Williams PH (2004) Would climate change drive species out of reserves? An assessment of existing reserve‐selection methods.

Araujo MB, Guisan A (2006) Five (or so) challenges for species distribution modelling. Journal of Biogeography 33: 1677-1688.

Attorre F, De Sanctis M, Farcomeni A, Guillet A, Scepi E, Vitale M, Pella F, Fasola M (2013) The use of spatial ecological modelling as a tool for improving the assessment of geographic range size of threatened species. Journal for Nature Conservation 21: 48-55.

Austin MP (2002) Spatial prediction of species distribution: an interface between ecological theory and statistical modelling.

Bachman S, Moat J, Hill AW, De La Torre J, Scott B (2011) Supporting Red List threat assessments with GeoCAT: geospatial conservation assessment tool. ZooKeys 150: 117-126.

Baumgartner JB, Esperón‐Rodríguez M, Beaumont LJ (2018) Identifying in situ climate refugia for plant species. Ecography 41: 1850-1863.

Bonebrake TC, Syphard AD, Franklin J, Anderson KE, Akçakaya HR, Mizerek T, Winchell C, Regan HM (2014) Fire management, managed relocation, and land conservation options for long‐lived obligate seeding plants under global changes in climate, urbanization, and fire Application of SDM in Central Asia regime.

Bourg NA, McShea WJ, Gill DE (2005) Putting a cart before the search: successful habitat prediction for a rare forest herb. Ecology 86: 2793-2804.

Bradley BA, Oppenheimer M, Wilcove DS (2009) Climate change and plant invasions: restoration opportunities ahead? Global Change Biology 15: 1511-1521.

Brambilla M, Caprio E, Assandri G, Scridel D, Bassi E et al. (2017) A spatially explicit definition of conservation priorities according to population resistance and resilience, species importance and level of threat in a changing climate. Diversity and Distributions 23: 727–738.

Breiner FT, Guisan A, Nobis MP, Bergamini A (2017) Including environmental niche information to improve IUCN Red List assessments. Diversity and Distributions 23: 484-495.

Cardoso P, Borges PAV, Triantis KA, Ferrández MA, Martín JL (2011) Adapting the IUCN Red List criteria for invertebrates.

Chape S, Harrison J, Spalding M, Lysenko I (2005) Measuring the extent and effectiveness of protected areas as an indicator for meeting global biodiversity targets. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences 360: 443-455.

Choe H, Thorne JH, Hijmans R, Kim J, Kwon H, Seo C (2017) Meta‐corridor solutions for climate‐vulnerable plant species groups in South Korea. Journal of Applied Ecology 54: 1742-1754.

Choe H, Thorne JH, Huber PR, Lee D, Quinn JF (2018) Assessing shortfalls and complementary conservation areas for national plant biodiversity in South Korea.

Cole KL, Ironside K, Eischeid J, Garfin G, Duffy PB, Toney C (2011) Past and ongoing shifts in Joshua tree distribution Volis support future modeled range contraction.

Conroy GC, Shimizu-Kimura Y, Lamont RW, Ogbourne SM (2019) A multidisciplinary approach to inform assisted migration of the restricted rainforest tree, Fontainea rostrata.

Costa GC, Nogueira C, Machado RB, Colli GR (2010) Sampling bias and the use of ecological niche modeling in conservation planning: a field evaluation in a biodiversity hotspot. Biodiversity and Conservation 19: 883-899.

Crall AW, Jarnevich CS, Panke B, Young N, Renz M, Morisette J (2013) Using habitat suitability models to target invasive plant species surveys. Ecological Applications 23: 60-72.

Cuesta F, Peralvo M, Merino-Viteri A, Bustamante M, Baquero F, Freile JF, Muriel P, Torres-Carvajal O (2017) Priority areas for biodiversity conservation in mainland Ecuador.

Neotropical Biodiversity 3: 93-106. de Castro Pena JC, Kamino LHY, Rodrigues M, Mariano-Neto E, de Siqueira MF (2014) Assessing the conservation status of species with limited available data and disjunct distribution.

Biological Conservation 170: 130-136. de Siqueira MF, Durigan G, de Marco Júnior P, Peterson AT (2009) Something from nothing: using landscape similarity and ecological niche modeling to find rare plant species. Journal for Nature Conservation 17: 25-32.

Di Cola V, Broennimann O, Petitpierre B, Breiner FT, D'amen M, Randin C, Engler R, Pottier J, Pio D, Dubuis A (2017) ecospat: an R package to support spatial analyses and modeling of species niches and distributions. Ecography 40: 774-787.

Draper D, Marques I, Iriondo JM (2019) Species distribution models with field validation, a key approach for successful selection of receptor sites in conservation translocations. Global Ecology and Conservation 19: e00653. Application of SDM in Central Asia Dumroese RK, Williams MI, Stanturf JA, Clair JBS (2015) Considerations for restoring temperate forests of tomorrow: forest restoration, assisted migration, and bioengineering.

Duursma DE, Gallagher RV, Roger E, Hughes L, Downey PO, Leishman MR (2013) Nextgeneration invaders? Hotspots for naturalised sleeper weeds in Australia under future climates.

Ferrier S (2002) Mapping spatial pattern in biodiversity for regional conservation planning: where to from here? Systematic Biology 51: 331-363.

Fiedler PL, Laven RD (1996) Selecting reintroduction sites. In: Falk DA, Millar CI, Olwell M (eds), Restoring Diversity: strategies for reintroduction of endangered plants.

Fleishman E, Noss RF, Noon BR (2006) Utility and limitations of species richness metrics for conservation planning.

Fois M, Cuena-Lombrana A, Fenu G, Cogoni D, Bacchetta G (2016) The reliability of conservation status assessments at regional level: past, present and future perspectives on Gentiana lutea L. ssp. lutea in Sardinia. Journal for Nature Conservation 33: 1-9.

Fois M, Fenu G, Lombrana AC, Cogoni D, Bacchetta G (2015) A practical method to speed up the discovery of unknown populations using Species Distribution Models. Journal for Nature Conservation 24: 42-48.

Franklin J (1995) Predictive vegetation mapping: geographic modelling of biospatial patterns in relation to environmental gradients. Progress in Physical Geography 19: 474-499.

Franklin J (2009) Mapping species distributions: Spatial inference and predictions. Cambridge University Press, New York.

Gaisberger H, Legay S, Andre C, Loo J, Azimov R, Aaliev S, Bobokalonov F, Mukhsimov N, Kettle C, Vinceti B (2020) Diversity under threat: connecting genetic Volis diversity and threat mapping to set conservation priorities for Juglans regia L. populations in Central Asia. Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution 8: 171.

Game ET, Lipsett-Moore G, Saxon E, Peterson N, Sheppard S (2011) Incorporating climate change adaptation into national conservation assessments.

García A (2006) Using ecological niche modelling to identify diversity hotspots for the herpetofauna of Pacific lowlands and adjacent interior valleys of Mexico.

Biological Conservation 130: 25-46. Garcia del Barrio JM, Aunon F, Sanchez de Ron D, Alia R (2013) Assessing regional species pools for restoration programs in Spain.

Gärdenfors U, Hilton-Taylor C, Mace GM, Rodríguez JP (2001) The application of IUCN Red List criteria at regional levels.

Gioia P, Pigott JP (2000) Biodiversity assessment: a case study in predicting richness from the potential distributions of plant species in the forests of south-western Australia. Journal of Biogeography 27: 1065-1078.

Greenspan E, Giordano AJ (2021) A rangewide distribution model for the Pallas’s cat (Otocolobus manul): identifying potential new survey regions for an understudied small cat. Mammalia 85: 574-587. Groves CR, Game ET, Anderson MG, Cross MS, Enquist C, Ferdana Z, Girvetz E, Gondor A, Hall KR, Higgins J, Marshall R, Popper K, Schill S, Shafer S (2012) Incorporating climate change into systematic conservation planning. Biodiversity and Conservation 21: 16511671.

Guillera-Arroita G, Lahoz-Monfort JJ, Elith J, Gordon A, Kujala H, Lentini PE, McCarthy MA, Tingley R, Wintle BA (2015) Is my species distribution model fit for purpose? Matching data and models to applications.

Global Ecology and Biogeography 24: 276292. Application of SDM in Central Asia Guisan A, Rahbek C (2011) SESAM – a new framework integrating macroecological and species distribution models for predicting spatio-temporal patterns of species assemblages. Journal of Biogeography 38: 1433-1444.

Guisan A, Thuiller W (2005) Predicting species distribution: offering more than simple habitat models.

Guisan A, Zimmermann NE (2000) Predictive habitat distribution models in ecology.

Guo J-L, Yu Y-H, Zhang J-W, Li Z-M, Zhang Y-H, Volis S (2019) Conservation strategy for aquatic plants: endangered Ottelia acuminata (Hydrocharitaceae) as a case study. Biodiversity and Conservation 28: 1533-1548.

Hannah L, Midgley G, Andelman S, Araujo M, Hughes G, Martinez-Meyer E, Pearson R, Williams P (2007) Protected area needs in a changing climate. Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment 5: 131-138.

Hanski I (1999) Metapopulation ecology.

Holt CDS, Nevin OT, Smith D, Convery I (2018) Environmental niche overlap between snow leopard and four prey species in Kazakhstan. Ecological Informatics 48: 97-103.

Hosseinian Yousefkhani SS, Ficetola GF, Rastegar-Pouyani N, Ananjeva NB, Rastegar-Pouyani E, Masroor R (2013) Environmental suitability and distribution of the Caucasian Rock Agama, Paralaudakia caucasia (Sauria: Agamidae) in western and central Asia.

Huenneke LF (1991) Ecological implications of genetic variation in plant populations. In: Falk DA, Holsinger KE (eds), Genetics and Conservation of Rare Plants.

Volis Hutchinson GE (1978) An introduction to population ecology.

Ibanez I, Silander Jr JA, Allen JM, Treanor SA, Wilson A (2009) Identifying hotspots for plant invasions and forecasting focal points of further spread. Journal of Applied Ecology 46: 1219-1228. IUCN (2001) UCN Red List Categories and Criteria: Version 3.1.

IUCN Species Survival Commission, Gland, Switzerland and Cambridge, UK. IUCN (2016) Guidelines for using the IUCN red list categories and criteria version 12. Data available at. http://www.iucnredlist.org/documents/RedL istGuidelines.pdf. IUCN (2017) IUCN Standards and Petitions Subcommittee. Guidelines for using the IUCN RedList categories and criteria.

Jarvis A, Williams K, Williams D, Guarino L, Caballero PJ, Mottram G (2005) Use of GIS for optimizing a collecting mission for a rare wild pepper (Capsicum flexuosum Sendtn.) in Paraguay.

Jiménez-Alfaro B, Draper D, Nogués-Bravo D (2012) Modeling the potential area of occupancy at fine resolution may reduce uncertainty in species range estimates.

Jiménez-Valverde A, Lobo JM, Hortal J (2008) Not as good as they seem: the importance of concepts in species distribution modelling. Diversity and Distributions 14: 885-890.

Jiménez-Valverde A, Peterson AT, Soberón J, Overton JM, Aragón P, Lobo JM (2011) Use of niche models in invasive species risk assessments.

Kearney M (2006) Habitat, environment and niche: what are we modelling? Oikos 115: 186-191.

Keppel G, Mokany K, Wardell-Johnson GW, Phillips BL, Welbergen JA, Reside AE (2015) The capacity of refugia for conservation planning under climate Application of SDM in Central Asia change. Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment 13: 106-112.

Klorvuttimontara S, McClean CJ, Hill JK (2011) Evaluating the effectiveness of Protected Areas for conserving tropical forest butterflies of Thailand.

Koch R, Almeida-Cortez JS, Kleinschmit B (2017) Revealing areas of high nature conservation importance in a seasonally dry tropical forest in Brazil: Combination of modelled plant diversity hot spots and threat patterns. Journal for Nature Conservation 35: 24-39.

Krause C, Pennington D (2012) Strategic decisions in conservation: using species distribution modeling to match ecological requirements to available habitat. In: Maschinski J, Haskins KE (eds), Plant reintroduction in a changing climate: Promises and perils. Island Press, Washington, DC, pp. 131-153.

Kremen C, Cameron A, Moilanen A, Phillips SJ, Thomas CD, Beentje H, Dransfield J, Fisher BL, Glaw F, Good TC (2008) Aligning conservation priorities across taxa in Madagascar with high-resolution planning tools. Science 320: 222-226.

Lannuzel G, Balmot J, Dubos N, Thibault M, Fogliani B (2021) High-resolution topographic variables accurately predict the distribution of rare plant species for conservation area selection in a narrowendemism hotspot in New Caledonia. Biodiversity and Conservation 30: 963-990.

Lazzaro L, Viciani D, Dell’Olmo L, Foggi B (2017) Predicting risk of invasion in a Mediterranean island using niche modelling and valuable biota.

Lessmann J, Munoz J, Bonaccorso E (2014) Maximizing species conservation in continental Ecuador: a case of systematic conservation planning for biodiverse regions. Ecology and Evolution 4: 24102422.

Li J, Chang H, Liu T, Zhang C (2019) The potential geographical distribution of Haloxylon across Central Asia under Volis climate change in the 21st century. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 275: 243-254. Lodge DM, Simonin PW, Burgiel SW, Keller RP, Bossenbroek JM, Jerde CL, Kramer AM, Rutherford ES, Barnes MA, Wittmann ME (2016) Risk analysis and bioeconomics of invasive species to inform policy and management. Annual Review of Environment and Resources 41: 453-488.

Lomba A, Pellissier L, Randin C, Vicente J, Moreira F, Honrado J, Guisan A (2010) Overcoming the rare species modelling paradox: a novel hierarchical framework applied to an Iberian endemic plant.

Malakhov D, Islamgulova A (2021) The ecological niche of Pistacia Vera L.(Anacardiaceae) in Central Asia: A comprehensive tool for agromeliorative planning. Biosis: Biological Systems 2: 209216.

Malakhov DV, Chirikova MA (2018) Species distribution model of Varanus griseus caspius (Eichwald, 1831) in Central Asia: an insight to the species' biology.

Manish K, Pandit MK (2019) Identifying conservation priorities for plant species in the Himalaya in current and future climates: A case study from Sikkim Himalaya, India.

Marcer A, Sáez L, Molowny-Horas R, Pons X, Pino J (2013) Using species distribution modelling to disentangle realised versus potential distributions for rare species conservation.

McCune JL (2016) Species distribution models predict rare species occurrences despite significant effects of landscape context. Journal of Applied Ecology 53: 1871-1879.

Menon S, Choudhury BI, Khan ML, Peterson AT (2010) Ecological niche modeling and local knowledge predict new populations of Gymnocladus assamicus a critically endangered tree species.

Endangered Species Research 11: 175-181. Application of SDM in Central Asia Moat J, Bachman S (2017) GeoCAT Geospatial Conservation Assessment Tool. Retrieved from http://geocat.kew.org/.

Muñoz-Rodríguez P, Munt DD, Saiz JCM (2016) Global strategy for plant conservation: inadequate in situ conservation of threatened flora in Spain.

Newbold T, Gilbert F, Zalat S, El‐Gabbas A, Reader T (2009) Climate-based models of spatial patterns of species richness in Egypt’s butterfly and mammal fauna. Journal of Biogeography 36: 2085-2095.

O'Donnell J, Gallagher RV, Wilson PD, Downey PO, Hughes L, Leishman MR (2012) Invasion hotspots for non-native plants in Australia under current and future climates.

Peterson AT (2003) Predicting the geography of species’ invasions via ecological niche modeling.

Peterson AT, Vieglais DA (2001) Predicting Species Invasions Using Ecological Niche Modeling: New Approaches from Bioinformatics Attack a Pressing Problem: A new approach to ecological niche modeling, based on new tools drawn from biodiversity informatics, is applied to the challenge of predicting potential species' invasions. BioScience 51: 363-371.

Powell M, Accad A, Shapcott A (2005) Geographic information system (GIS) predictions of past, present habitat distribution and areas for re-introduction of the endangered subtropical rainforest shrub Triunia robusta (Proteaceae) from southeast Queensland Australia.

Poyarkov AD, Rozhnov VV (2019) Potential habitat of snow leopard (Panthera uncia, Felinae) in south Siberia and adjacent territories based on the maximum entropy distribution model. Зоологический журнал 98: 332-342.

Volis Pulliam HR (1988) Sources, sinks, and population regulation.

Pulliam HR (2000) On the relationship between niche and distribution.

Rabinowitz D (1981) Seven forms of rarity. In: Synge H (ed.), The biological aspects of rare plant conservation, Wiley, Chichester, pp. 205-217.

Renteria JL, Rouget M, Visser V (2017) Rapid prioritization of alien plants for eradication based on climatic suitability and eradication feasibility.

Rondinini C, Wilson KA, Boitani L, Grantham H, Possingham HP (2006) Tradeoffs of different types of species occurrence data for use in systematic conservation planning.

Rovzar C, Gillespie TW, Kawelo K (2016) Landscape to site variations in species distribution models for endangered plants.

Sáenz-Romero C, Rehfeldt GE, Duval P, Lindig-Cisneros RA (2012) Abies religiosa habitat prediction in climatic change scenarios and implications for monarch butterfly conservation in Mexico.

Sancholi N (2018) Effects of climate change on Paralaudakia lehmanni (Nicolsky, 1896) (Reptilia: Agamidae) in Central Asia.

Särkinen T, Gonzáles P, Knapp S (2013) Distribution models and species discovery: the story of a new Solanum species from the Peruvian Andes. PhytoKeys 31: 1-20.

Schmitt S, Pouteau R, Justeau D, de Boissieu F, Birnbaum P (2017) ssdm: An r package to predict distribution of species richness and composition based on stacked species distribution models. Methods in Ecology and Evolution 8: 1795-1803.

Sérgio C, Figueira R, Draper D, Menezes R, Sousa AJ (2007) Modelling bryophyte distribution based on ecological information Application of SDM in Central Asia for extent of occurrence assessment.

Shapcott A, Powell M (2011) Demographic structure, genetic diversity and habitat distribution of the endangered, Australian rainforest tree Macadamia jansenii help facilitate an introduction program.

Shoo LP, Storlie C, Vanderwal J, Little J, Williams SE (2011) Targeted protection and restoration to conserve tropical biodiversity in a warming world.

Siles G, Alcantara JM, Rey PJ, Bastida JM (2010) Defining a target map of native species assemblages for restoration.

Soberon J (2007) Grinnellian and Eltonian niches and geographic distributions of species.

Soberon J, Peterson AT (2005) Interpretation of models of fundamental ecological niches and species’ distributional areas.

Spiers JA, Oatham MP, Rostant LV, Farrell AD (2018) Applying species distribution modelling to improving conservation based decisions: a gap analysis of Trinidad and Tobago’s endemic vascular plants. Biodiversity and Conservation 27: 29312949.

Su J, Aryal A, Hegab IM, Shrestha UB, Coogan SCP, Sathyakumar S, Dalannast M, Dou Z, Suo Y, Dabu X (2018) Decreasing brown bear (Ursus arctos) habitat due to climate change in Central Asia and the Asian Highlands. Ecology and Evolution 8: 11887-11899.

Sutton LJ, Puschendorf R (2020) Climatic niche of the Saker Falcon Falco cherrug: predicted new areas to direct population surveys in Central Asia. Ibis 162: 27-41.

Swart C, Donaldson J, Barker N (2018) Predicting the distribution of Encephalartos latifrons, a critically endangered cycad in South Africa. Biodiversity and Conservation 27: 1961-1980.

Taylor C, Cadenhead N, Lindenmayer DB, Wintle BA (2017) Improving the design of Volis a conservation reserve for a critically endangered species.

Thorn JS, Nijman V, Smith D, Nekaris KAI (2009) Ecological niche modelling as a technique for assessing threats and setting conservation priorities for Asian slow lorises (Primates: Nycticebus). Diversity and Distributions 15: 289-298.

Thuiller W, Richardson DM, Pysek P, Midgley GF, Hughes GO, Rouget M (2005a) Nichebased modelling as a tool for predicting the risk of alien plant invasions at a global scale.

Tojibaev K, Beshko N, Volis S (2019) Translocation of Otostegia bucharica, a highly threatened narrowly distributed relict shrub.

Volis S (2022) Conservation-oriented restoration and its application to Central Asia.

Volis S, Tojibaev K (2021) Defining critical habitat for plant species with poor occurrence knowledge and identification of critical habitat networks. Biodiversity and Conservation 30: 3603-3611.

Vorsino AE, Fortini LB, Amidon FA, Miller SE, Jacobi JD, Price JP, Koob GA (2014) Modeling Hawaiian ecosystem degradation due to invasive plants under current and future climates.

Wang H-H, Wonkka CL, Treglia ML, Grant WE, Smeins FE, Rogers WE (2015) Species distribution modelling for conservation of an endangered endemic orchid.

Warren DL, Seifert SN (2011) Ecological niche modeling in Maxent: the importance of model complexity and the performance of model selection criteria.

Williams JN, Seo C, Thorne J, Nelson JK, Erwin S, O’Brien JM, Schwartz MW (2009) Using species distribution models to predict new occurrences for rare plants. Diversity and Distributions 15: 565-576. Application of SDM in Central Asia Wilson B, Dolotbakov A, Burgess BJ, Clubbe C, Lazkov G, Shalpykov K, Ganybaeva M, Sultangaziev O, Brockington SF (2021) Central Asian wild tulip conservation requires a regional approach, especially in the face of climate change. Biodiversity and Conservation 30: 1705-1730.

Wilson B, Mills M, Kulikov M, Clubbe C (2019) The future of walnut-fruit forests in Kyrgyzstan and the status of the iconic Endangered apple Malus niedzwetzkyana. Oryx 53: 415-423.

Wittenberg R, Cock MJ (2005) Best practices for the prevention and management of invasive alien species. In: Mooney HA, Mack RN, McNeely JA, Neville LE, Schei PJ, Waage JK (eds), Invasive alien species. A new synthesis. Island Press, Wahington DC, pp. 209–232.

Downloads

Published

2022-08-01

Issue

Section

Review Articles

How to Cite

Species Distribution Modeling - a conservation tool with a wide spectrum of applications in Central Asia. (2022). Plant Diversity of Central Asia, 1(2), 26-66. https://doi.org/10.54981/PDCA/vol1_iss2/a2

Most read articles by the same author(s)

Similar Articles

1-10 of 21

You may also start an advanced similarity search for this article.